Match Group Stock Performance

MTCH Stock  USD 30.61  1.71  5.92%   
The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.0, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Match returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Match is expected to follow. At this point, Match Group has a negative expected return of -0.0926%. Please make sure to verify Match's kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the day median price and relative strength index , to decide if Match Group performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Match Group has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. Despite fairly strong fundamental indicators, Match is not utilizing all of its potentials. The recent stock price confusion, may contribute to short-horizon losses for the traders. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
5.92
Five Day Return
(0.94)
Year To Date Return
(3.56)
Ten Year Return
213.63
All Time Return
9.7 K
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0263
Payout Ratio
0.2317
Last Split Factor
3502:1000
Forward Dividend Rate
0.76
Dividend Date
2026-01-21
1
Acquisition by Sean Edgett of 406 shares of Match subject to Rule 16b-3
11/07/2025
2
Acquisition by Sean Edgett of 22806 shares of Match subject to Rule 16b-3
11/14/2025
3
A Fresh Look at Match Group Valuation After Board Addition and Governance Shift
11/28/2025
4
Match Group announces leadership change at Hinge
12/09/2025
5
The AI dating arms race Dating apps are betting millions that youll fall back in love with them
12/23/2025
6
Acquisition by Hesam Hosseini of 315 shares of Match subject to Rule 16b-3
01/14/2026
7
Is Match Group Pricing A Temporary Slump Or Long Term Reset In Expectations
01/15/2026
8
GTCR Announces Partnership with Gary Swidler to Form Ascent Sports Group
01/20/2026
 
Match dividend paid on 21st of January 2026
01/21/2026
9
Acquisition by Dubey Sharmistha of tradable shares of Match subject to Rule 16b-3
01/23/2026
10
A Skadden veterans uneasy take on smarter machines
01/26/2026
11
Bumble, Match, Panera Bread and CrunchBase hit by cyberattacks, Bloomberg News reports
01/29/2026
12
Match Group Q4 2025 Earnings Preview
02/02/2026
13
Match Group Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
02/03/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow966 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-46.8 M

Match Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  3,268  in Match Group on November 7, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (207.00) from holding Match Group or give up 6.33% of portfolio value over 90 days. Match Group is currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes 1.8168% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 16% of stocks are less volatile than Match, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Match is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 2.41 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.05 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.12 per unit of volatility.

Match Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Match Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 30.61 90 days 30.61 
roughly 96.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Match to move above the current price in 90 days from now is roughly 96.0 (This Match Group probability density function shows the probability of Match Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Match has a beta of 1.0. This indicates Match Group market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Match is expected to follow. Additionally Match Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Match Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Match

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Match Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Match's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
28.7930.5932.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.5533.8235.62
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
27.5729.3831.18
Details
23 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
33.2436.5340.55
Details

Match Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Match is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Match's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Match Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Match within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.12
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.00
σ
Overall volatility
0.92
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Match Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Match for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Match Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Match Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Match Group is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 21st of January 2026 Match paid $ 0.19 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from fool.com: Match Group Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript

Match Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Match Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Match's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Match's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding262.5 M
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB

Match Fundamentals Growth

Match Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Match, and Match fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Match Stock performance.

About Match Performance

By evaluating Match's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Match's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Match has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Match has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 41.29  39.23 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.32  0.33 
Return On Capital Employed 0.25  0.27 
Return On Assets 0.14  0.14 
Return On Equity(2.42)(2.54)

Things to note about Match Group performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Match for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Match Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Match Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Match Group is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 21st of January 2026 Match paid $ 0.19 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from fool.com: Match Group Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
Evaluating Match's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Match's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Match's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Match's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Match's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Match's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Match's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Match's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Match's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Match's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Match's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Match Stock analysis

When running Match's price analysis, check to measure Match's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Match is operating at the current time. Most of Match's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Match's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Match's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Match to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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